Market Reports
But Zillow says my house is worth…
July 18, 2011 by Sasha C. Farmer, REALTOR ® · Leave a Comment
It is actually quite often that people I run into have been completely misguided about their home values. With the incredible technology and information online about real estate and home searches, people often feel that real estate websites are getting to the point where they are extremely accurate and reliable. In some large cities, evidently this is true. In Charlottesville, there still seems to be a huge void between what these websites predict about our real estate values and local market, as compared to market reality.
Zillow and Trulia seem to be the two biggest offenders when it comes to this as they offer automated home valuations that people like to use to predict their home values from year to year. Zillow’s Zestimates seem like they are based on enough data and information that they would at least be able to give you a reasonable range within which you could expect your home price to fall. However, that does not often seem to be the case.
According to Zillow themselves, almost every market area in Central Virginia has an extremely low accuracy level- check out the charts below that they provide to set your expectations!
Their self-reported accuracy level is extremely low (almost all nearby counties are a 1 out of 4 star rating) and I can absolutely attest to that!
All that being said, please do not let automated estimates of value set your expectations about your own home or homes you may be interested in buying! If you need pricing analysis and recommendations, please consult with a real estate professional- ideally me! – for guidance.
CAAR 2011 Mid-Year Market Report
July 18, 2011 by Sasha C. Farmer, REALTOR ® · Leave a Comment
Click below to download the CAAR Mid Year Market Report for 2011. This is a hyper-local report that shows us exactly what to be expecting in the real estate market. Provided by the local real estate association, it gives us a great glimpse of the major areas served by CAAR agents, and the respective markets there.
2011 Mid-Year CAAR Market Report
We are really outgrowing out current home, but…
July 18, 2011 by Sasha C. Farmer, REALTOR ® · Leave a Comment
In the current market, there are many homeowners out there who would like to have a larger/nicer home but are patiently waiting for the market to improve. A frequently heard objection is that they can’t sell their home for what they think it should be worth, so they are trying to wait for the market to improve a bit and sell then.
Buying up in a down market is actually advantageous because while you might get less for the home you’re selling, you’re also getting the larger home for less. For instance, if you had to sell a $200,000 home for a 10% discount, you might feel that you left $20,000 on the table. However, buying a $300,000 for the same 10% discount would put you $10,000 ahead on the sale and purchase.
The other obvious matter is that when the mortgage rates increase while you’re waiting for the market to improve, it dramatically increases your cost of housing with higher payments. The cost of housing is affected by price and mortgage rates. Take a look at the image below for an example.
Rising Interest Rates vs. Rising Home Prices
To accurately evaluate your current options, you need facts and assessment tools that will provide you the information to make an informed decision. Please contact me if this is something you have been recently debating!
CAAR Year-End Market Report 2010
January 10, 2011 by Sasha C. Farmer, REALTOR ® · 2 Comments
CAAR is releasing it’s 4th quarter market report tomorrow, so this is fresh off the presses!
Some pieces that I thought were relevant if you’re in the market to buy or sell;
Good news for buyers;
Price Per Square Foot (Finished)—Pockets of Value for Buyers
The current area average of $139 per finished square foot is the lowest number since 2004, indicating true “pockets of value” for buyers. Prices declined for the past four years—a $32 per square foot drop since peaking for buyers in 2006.
And as I’ve been saying for months;
Greg Slater, 2010 CAAR President cautions that, “until the inventory reaches and maintains level we consider historically level, there will continue to be uncertainty in predicting the pace of sales and stability of pricing.”
Take a look for yourself and let me know your thoughts. I will be running my own numbers next week.
2010 Year-End CAAR Market Report
Is Now a Good Time to Buy?
October 5, 2010 by Sasha C. Farmer, REALTOR ® · 2 Comments
Time Magazine’s September 11 cover story attempts to make a strong case against homeownership in the article found here; but I have actually found my recent conversations with clients (current and pending) to present a story that is quite the opposite.
Are you still debating whether or not it is a “good time to buy”? It is never a good time to buy for EVERYONE, but right now is a GREAT time to buy for many people, and I hope the naysayers aren’t swaying people away from making a decision that could very well be right for them. If you have income/job consistency and plan to stay in the same location for 5+ years, this may be the best time to buy that we’ll see in this lifetime. In Charlottesville, we have excellent selection, competitive prices, and we’re seeing the same low interest rates that all of these experts mention.
Here is an interesting article from Steve Harney, a real estate expert who has stayed abreast of the current real state market and seems to do a good job reporting on it fairly.
“If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one. And if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy one.” – John Paulson 9/27/2010
WOW! That’s a powerful statement.
There is no question that John Paulson is a bull when it comes to residential real estate right now. Should we care what Mr. Paulson thinks? Should we listen to him? The answer to both questions is a resounding ‘YES’. Here are several reasons why.
Who is John Paulson?
Paulson is the person who made a fortune betting that the subprime mortgage mess would cause the the real estate market to collapse. He understands how the housing market works and knows when to buy and when to sell. What do others think of Paulson?
According to Forbes John Paulson is:
a multibillionaire hedge fund operator and the investment genius who made a killing going short subprime mortgages a few years ago.
According to the Wall Street Journal Paulson is:
a hedge fund tycoon who made his name, and a fortune, betting against subprime mortgages when no one else even knew what they were.
What did other financial players think of his statement?
The Wall Street Journal agrees with Paulson:
Ignore the critics. The odds have to be on his side…It isn’t just that home prices have fallen a long way. It’s also that, if you can get a mortgage, you are basically taking a reverse bet on the bond market. You could be a long-term borrower at fixed rates, instead of a long-term lender. Right now you can borrow for 30 years at around 4.3%. After the mortgage tax deduction, for some people the net effective interest rate is nearer to 3%. That’s going to prove an awesome deal if we see inflation again.
And Forbes said:
As this is the best time in 50 years to buy homes, Paulson advised his listeners to take 30 year mortgages to buy a home as “your debt and interest payments get locked in at record lows, while the price of your home will rise.”
Are others also saying now is the time to buy?
Just last week, we posted that there is a growing number of people saying that NOW is the time to buy, including:
- The Wall Street Journal
- Professor Karl Case, founder of the Case Shiller House Pricing Index
- The wealthiest families in the country and
- 70% of everyone else in America
Bottom Line
Thinking of buying a home? Are you taking advice from a friend or family member telling you that now is not the time? It may be time to listen to people who better understand the opportunities that exist in real estate today.
via If HE Says It Is Time To Buy a Home, BUY A HOME!.
I hope that if you’re considering purchasing a home, you will give me a call or shoot me an email to discuss your options and take a look at whether or not buying a new home in Charlottesville might be the right decision for you!
Just Released: The CAAR First Quarter Market Report!
April 12, 2010 by Sasha C. Farmer, REALTOR ® · Leave a Comment
This was just released, so I wanted to give people the opportunity to check it out. I will be reading it over and making some comments soon!
2010 1st Qtr CAAR Market Report – members.pdf
Just Released! The Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors' Year-End Market Report
January 14, 2010 by Sasha C. Farmer, REALTOR ® · Leave a Comment
The Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors has just released it’s Year End Market Report this morning, and it includes some very valuable information that home buyers and sellers should really be aware of.
Click here to download and read the full report. 2009 CAAR Year-End Market Report
I will be doing a more thorough analysis this weekend, but until then, some of the salient points…
Some people have suggested that the first time home buyer credit hasn’t been effective, but I have completely disagreed with that, and while this data isn’t a clear indicator that the credit is working, it would suggest that more first time buyers (in the below $300,000 price range) have been in our market in Q4 2009, than we are typically used to.
As reported for the past two quarterly reports, significantly lower home prices (down 20% or more) are driving the pick-up in sales. In addition, the $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers supercharged the sale of starter homes (below $300,000) in 2009. 67.5% of home sales for the year were in this starter home category, which is approximately a 10% increase in this category.
- CAAR Year End Market Report.
One thing to be aware of is the average price per square foot we’re seeing across the different counties. This is one of the more profound ways to see that our pricing has returned to that of 2005 levels (at least), if not gone lower. My personal belief is that our prices are actually closer to what they were in 2004. Take a look at the $/SF analysis below to see how your county has fared.
Price Per Square Foot (Finished)
Another indicator that allows us to see the decline in home prices is a major drop in the price per square foot numbers. The average price per square foot of finished space in homes is not a scientific number, but a downward trend over the years clearly indicates a decrease in prices (and vice versa). According to the chart below, prices peaked in 2006 and have declined for the past three years. There has been a $28 per square foot drop since the peak in 2006. The current $143 per square foot is the lowest number since 2004.
- CAAR Year End Market Report.
According to the CAAR Year End market Report, our inventory of homes is slowly declining. Of course this was the main aim of the First TIme Home Buyer tax credit, and we are all anxious to see what will happen to inventory once it expires.
Inventory of Homes for Sale
“The inventory of homes for sale in the Charlottesville has continued to decline very slowly. As we have reported for the past several quarters, the excess of inventory is causing many of the problems with our local housing market. The decline in inventory is very encouraging, but we will still have too many homes on the market for the current demand. This could change very quickly going into the busy spring market.”
- CAAR Year End Market Report.
Average Days on Market
One piece of information that I always want future sellers to be acutely aware of is the average days on market. The days on market is a measure of homes SOLD BY AN AGENT THROUGH THE MLS, and how long they’re taken on the market being actively marketed before they have sold. This number does not include some very high days on market numbers for all of the homes that never sell, it only calculated DOM for solds, so it is artificially lower than days on market of ALL HOMES. If you are thinking of selling your home in the near future, you need to be acutely aware of the average days on market for your county and be sure to give your real estate agent a reasonable amount of time to accomplish your goals.
Will be elaborating more on this report later, but would love some questions from all of you!
